Prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) of innovative wood-based products from post-disturbance pioneer deciduous tree species (birch and poplar) in Germany with special considerations of uncertainties

Main Presenter:    Mandy Zheng Cummings 

Co-Authors:   Prof. Dr. Gabriele Weber-Blaschke                                               

Given the increase in the frequency and severity of climate-induced forest calamities, there is a dire need to enhance our understanding on climate-adapted reforestation approaches. Birch and poplar are known to be early colonizers that have a high natural regeneration capability, and they play a significant role in establishing the initial stages of forest succession. However, they are underestimated regarding their wood utilization. Therefore, their potentials including the environmental performances of their material use should be further explored to assess their future feasibility in Germany.
Within the REGULUS-Project LabForest, a prospective LCA will be conducted to evaluate the environmental impacts of various products (e.g. glulam, plywood, phenol, bio-polyurethane foam, bio-polyethylene) of differing technological readiness levels (TRL) made from naturally regenerating birch and poplar trees of German origin. Multiple scenarios will be developed to reflect the most probable future conditions. Additionally, the main sources of uncertainty across the different life cycle stages will be identified and propagated using Monte Carlo simulation, followed by a global sensitivity analysis which are thus far not widely applied in LCA.
Since higher-value birch and popular products have not been established on the German market, no historical data is available for environmental impact assessment. Therefore, uncertainties regarding data quality as well as data ranges will be expected due to effects of wood dimension and quality, technological adjustments, electricity mix and demand, and the input material types (e.g. bio-based vs. fossil-based glue). Additionally, hotspots associated with certain processes and possible trade-offs between climate change and other impact categories will be identified. Thereby, the findings will provide insight into the most relevant uncertainties and contribute towards greater transparency by increasing the overall interpretability, thus, limiting the risks of erroneous decision-making.

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