Prospective life cycle analysis of German building stock

Main Presenter:    Nathalie Glenn 

Co-Authors:   Alexander Passer     Marzia Traverso                                          

Purpose: Current life cycle assessment practice uses data gathered from existing or older data to project the evolution of environmental impacts over the period of fifty to one hundred years. The study develops a framework description using a stepwise approach for scenario-based inventory modelling known as the SIMPL approach to a prospective life cycle assessment. A German building stock model based on the IOER Material Cadastre of Buildings in Germany is used to create an inventory and calculate a range of impact results as a case study. These results will help test future scenarios to see if alternative material choices can help reach the Paris Agreement’s 2045 goals.
Research gap: The complexity of building stock, arising from the use of diverse materials, poses a significant challenge to the execution of a life cycle assessment. Most importantly life cycle assessments provide meaningful guidance for decision-making. Consequently, significant future scenarios such as climate change, future energy mix and the innovation potential of building materials must be incorporated into the calculation model. The objective of this study is to provide a contribution to the field of prospective life cycle assessment methods, utilising a large database, such as a building stock, to formulate solution pathways for imminent challenges.
Method: Based on a literature review, the current state of research in the field of context-specific assessment methods for life cycle-related environmental impacts of building components, the impact criteria and the appropriate methods for verifying the results are determined. Case studies will be conducted and analysed to determine the impact outlook for German building stock. Potential and limitations of indigenous construction methods and innovative materials as a contribution to sustainable construction will be examined.
Evaluation: The results will be summarised and documented to assess their significance and applicability. A critical review is required to ascertain the technical and scientific appropriateness of the methods employed, and to determine whether the data collected is sufficient to achieve the study’s objectives. It is also essential to identify any limitations and constraints that may impede the study’s progress. This is generally accomplished through the implementation of a sensitivity analysis, complemented by an uncertainty analysis, which is facilitated by a Monte Carlo simulation.

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